Fertility and the Projected Size of Generations: A Model

Abstract

We establish a framework and an empirical methodology that is useful for the analysis of fertility decisions. This framework incorporates individual as well as couple-specific motivations for childbearing and constructs a mathematical model that is useful for comparing societies with differing fertility rates. The framework incorporates ten reasons that individuals and couples find themselves having children as well as the relevance of each of these reasons in our modern societal structure. The mathematical model incorporates a predictive element and focuses on creating a structure conducive to the comparison of multiple societies with varying rates of fertility. Implications for inter-societal and inter-group interactions are discussed with an initial focus on the potential size of a society’s militia as well as a discussion of voting blocs and how policy can be predicted from the changes in the size of these blocs.