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Comparison of Statistical Models in Forecasting the Contribution of Financial Intermediaries on the Economic Growth in Bangladesh
Abstract
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the primary indicators to determine the health of a country’s economy. In recent days number of banks, insurance companies are rising and supposed to have an impact on overall economic growth as well as GDP. This study aims to determine the contribution of financial intermediaries to economic growth in Bangladesh. In order to do this, contributed amount of financial companies on GDP from the year 1975 to 2015 were taken under consideration. Two time series models, namely, Holt-Winter’s double exponential and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to analyze the data. After a number of analysis and diagnostic checks, ARIMA was selected as appropriate model. This model was used to forecast contribution of financial intermediaries on GDP from year 2015-16 to 2023-24. The forecast values show an increasing pattern throughout the period.
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