Degradation Prediction and Reliability Evaluation based on Hilbert-Huang Transform and Time Series-Grey Analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a method of degradation prediction and reliability evaluation based on Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and time series modeling procedure and grey theory by using degradation test data. The degradation test data are preprocessed by Hilbert-Huang Transform to obtain performance degradation data, which is treated as time series and stochastic process are utilized to describe the degradation process for degradation prediction and reliability evaluation. A degradation test is processed for rotary machine until they failed and the degradation test vibration data are collected for reliability evaluation. A comparison between the predicted reliability evaluation and the real reliability evaluation is processed and the results show that the reliability evaluation using Hilbert-Huang Transform and time series -grey analysis is effective.