Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Study of Earthquake Forecast through Hazard Rate Analysis

N. Sunusi, S. Darwis, W. Triyoso, I.W. Mangku


Earthquake forecast is defined as the probability that at least one event takes place in the future interval. Until now, study of earthquake forecast is still a challenge problem. One of the central issues in earthquake forecast is estimating earthquake hazard rate. The standard approach in such estimation is to use the likelihood of point processes. This paper propose a new approach named single decrement method, where the basic data are entry time, exit time, and number of occurrences. Our previous result shows that a single decrement approach is an alternative approach that can be used to estimate the earthquake
hazard rate. Using a parametric hazard rate model, we developed an earthquake occurrence forecast. As an illustration, the data taken from an earthquake catalogue will be considered. The result is that the probability that at least one event takes place in the future interval in one region has increase as a function of elapsed time.


hazard rate, single decrement, earthquake forecast.

Full Text:



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.