Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

A time series approach to road accidents in Angola from 2002 to 2015

Manuel Alberto, Dulce Gomes, Patrícia A. Filipe


Road accidents are now a major health problem worldwide, and particularly in Angola, where they are currently one of the major causes of death in the country. Over the time horizon under study, from 2002 to 2015, the average growth rate of road accidents was 7.3% and for both deaths and injured was 11.7%. In the present work, we have characterize the trend of the road accidents, deaths and injured in Angola using an STL, Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess. Time series modeling techniques were used to estimate the mathematical model that best fits the original data, in order to explain the evolution of the series and to make predictions. We have used classic Seasonal ARIMA models in two different approaches, the first one treat all observations the same way. The second approach identifies outliers, taking into account its magnitude and estimates Seasonal ARIMA models for the series excluding the significant outliers. The most appropriate models (in terms of the usual validation criteria) were identified for the characterization of the time series variability relative to road accidents, deaths and injured in Angola, as well as for providing the best predictions.


traffic accidents, outliers, Seasonal ARIMA models, decomposition, prediction.

Full Text:



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.