The Study of Intestinal Infectious Diseases in India: Application of Exponential Probability Distribution.

Abstract

Intestinal Infectious Diseases (IID) is most common in child population in India. Intestinal Infections is referred as infections caused by viruses, bacteria, parasites or other pathogens to the stomach or small and large intestinal. According to International classification of diseases (ICD) 10th revision, IID’s is coded from A00-A09 and diseases included in the group are cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, botulism, other types of salmonella infections, gastroenteritis, shigellosis and amoebiasis among others WHO(2016). This study includes the diseases- typhoid fever (A01.0-A01.09), paratyphoid fever (A01.1-A01.4) and other IIDs (A04.2, A04.4, A07.0-A07.1, A07.8-A07.9) as IID (GBD, 2015). Typhoid fever is mainly transmitted by contaminated water or food and is caused by the Salmonella enteric serovar Typhi (S. Typhi). Paratyphoid mainly caused by Salmonella enteric serovar Paratyphi A, B and C. This paper intends to study the general trend and distribution of deaths in working age group due to Intestinal Infectious Diseases (IID). Data is collected from Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation (IHME) from 1991 to 2015 (GBD, 2015). An attempt is made to fit the Upper Truncated Exponential Distribution (UTED) to the five year block periods. The age distributed deaths occurred in the five block periods follows the exponential distribution. The expected age at death due to IID is 14 years in the first block period is increased by 3 years in the last block period. Child and younger population have the high chance of dying due to the IID.