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A Statistical Cointegration Model for Relationship among Current Accounts, Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets

Chen-Yin Kuo

Abstract


This paper examines a long-run cointegration relationship among current accounts, stock prices, and foreign exchange markets for ten Asian countries. By conducting a cointegration test and estimating vector error correction model (VECM), this paper shows that at least one long-run cointegration equilibrium relationship exists for each country. In particular, Korea, India, and Thailand show a bidirectional causal relationship between any two of the three economic indicators. Furthermore, such a cointegration relationship appears to be influenced by three characteristics of Asian countries: capital control, flexibility in foreign exchange rates, and the ratio of trade to GDP. Three characteristics are the results of liberalization policy conducted in each Asian country. Consequently, this paper concludes that liberalization policy of each Asian country has an effect on a cointegration relationship among their current accounts, stock market and foreign exchange markets.

Keywords


Time-series model analysis, cointegration, liberalization policy, current accounts, stock prices, foreign exchange rates

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