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Analysis of Carbon Emission Based on Stochastic IPAT Model

Gang Du


China is going through development of industrialization and large-scale infrastructure construction, the carbon emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion increases sharply. Central government establishes national emission reduction target in 2020, asking for carbon emission per capita intensity drops 40%-45%. Aim to reach the goal, improving energy efficiency and adjusting the structures are necessary. Based on the improved STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence ,and Technology) panel corrected standard errors model, this paper analyzed the impacts from changes of population, industry and energy consumption structure on carbon emission with econometric approach. It is found that, if the growth of add value of second industry lower than the growth of GDP, considering the carbon emission intensity is dropping, the elasticity of carbon emission to secondary industry proportion is negative effectively and stably. The environmental Kuznets inflection appears earlier in more developed regions. The carbon emissions in west area are influenced by secondary industry more than tertiary industry, but the result is opposite in east area.


Carbon Emission, Impact Factors, STIRPAT, Panel Data.

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